Don’t Let Talk of Market Cycles Take You for a Ride
July 5, 2022 Author: Wes Crill, PhD Head of Investment Strategists and Vice President
A cyclic stock market would present frequent opportunities for market timing. However, the paucity of outperforming active equity managers suggests predicting stock market movements is not that easy. Cyclicality may also imply expected stock returns periodically go negative, a difficult concept to square with a market that reflects risk and return. Stock markets have positive expected returns every day, and research tells us the most reliable way to capture those returns is to stay invested for the long haul.